Antisipasikan posisi anda terhadap figur berikut

Thursday, July 5th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York time) UK
BOE HIKE RATE

At 7 a.m. New York time, we have interest rate statement coming out of UK. It is widely expected that UK will raise interest rates to 5.75%. That is already priced in so if they do decide to hike the rate but they will hike it by 0.50%, not by 0.25%, so if the rate is hiked to 6% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possible gain 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If for some reason they decide not to hike, if they leave the rate unchanged at 5.5%, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Most likely they will hike by 0.25 points so it will be a no trade.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Interest Rate Statement
* Possible BUY on GBP/USD if rate is hiked by 0.50% to 6.00% - or higher
* Possible SELL on GBP/USD if rate is unchanged - 5.50%
* Expect 100 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.
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Thursday, July 5th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York time) EUROPE
TRICHET STATEMENT

At 8:30 a.m. NY time we will have President Trichet speaking out of Euro zone. That could be a very important speech; it is expected that the euro zone will hike the rate at least once by the end of this year - that's why the Euro has been gaining so much strength but nobody knows when exactly it will happen yet. If Trichet uses words "strong vigilance" that's how he signals that they are going to hike the rate next month. So, if words "strong vigilance" are used in the speech, EUR/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if Trichet is saying that "inflation is a major concern", these words are kind of price in but it may be bullish for the euro. It will depend whether it would be a good trigger or not on how high the EUR/USD is at that time. So, "inflation is a major concern" would not be a very good trigger for this one; you would need to make that decision at the time of the report. However, if he does say "medium-term inflation is moderating" and his tone is rather dovish, or he does not say the inflation is a concern, I think EUR/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report because as a said: hawkishness from him is expected so when he drops the hawkish tone, it would be bearish for the euro.
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Analysis by Felix Homogratus
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