forcast for eur

di bawah ini saya tambahkann berita atau data yang lebih ke soal ekonomi untuk eur, daikaitkan dengan USD, dan kondisi perkonomian teutama setalah fomc minutes kemaren.
semoga bermanfaan bagi kita deh pokoknya.

The Euro-Zone;

The ECB are looking after an economy that has shown great resolve in dealing with an ever increasing Euro valuation, and in dealing with an economy that has continued to grow despite a slow-down in the US. Wage growth, Service expansion, and Industrial trends are all looking better than many had thought possible, and as such leave very little chance of anything other than a hold at 4%.

There was serious Market Chatter of an increase in the latter part of 2007, but that has been tempered by the impacts of the Credit Crisis, and looks as though has been enough to replace a Rate Increase. Wage demands and Commodity Inflation, the ‘Second Round Inflation effects’ are what the ECB is looking to contain, and in reality that could only be done by one of two things; a Rate increase, or a severe Global slow-down that impacts GDP and Exports from the Euro-Zone outside of the ECB target rates. Neither of those look likely in the near-term, but it seems that 1.6000 may be a line in the sand that will be easier to break than many first thought.

If the tones are Hawkish at the 08:30 EDT Press Conference the Euro Bulls may get a chance at the 1.6000 number this week, especially after the FOMC Minutes should a huge difference between these two regions economically. Talk of lower growth and wage inflation being contained could see a test of support at 1.5750.

We'll take the Long side of this one, only looking to buy the dips on the Euro has been something that we have stood by for 9 months now, no need to change that stance until the US shows GDP growth numbers, and Housing Inventory lower; we are 6 months away from that it would seem.

1.5910, 1.5950, 1.6000, 1.6030. Onwards and upwards, and it would seem that the US$ has no real answer in the short-term.

be wise, be smart and have a nice trading bo..!

TQ