Some FOMC Members Saw Risk of "Prolonged and Severe" Downturn

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Some FOMC Members Saw Risk of "Prolonged and Severe" Downturn, Minutes Show
14:09 04/08 (CEP News) – Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 18 meeting revealed several members saw a risk of a “prolonged and severe” downturn and that there had been “little indication” of stabilization in the U.S. housing market.

Officials had concerns that price expectations might loosen and had discussed evidence of an “adverse feedback loop,” the minutes showed.

It was also revealed that some members raised concerns about a precedent being sent on March 10 in regards to the Terms Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) operation and that the Fed recognizes rate policy alone can’t solve the market problems.

On March 18, the FOMC cut the target for the Fed funds rate by 75 bps to 2.25%, short of forecasts for a 100bp cut. Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed and Charles Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed both dissented, favouring "less aggressive action at this meeting". Both members are reputed hawks.

Fed officials had seen that the economic outlook had “weakened considerably” and that Fed staff “substantially” cut the GDP forecast.

“The outlook for economic activity had weakened considerably since the January meeting, and members viewed the downside risks to economic growth as having increased,” the minutes read. “Indeed, some believed that a prolonged and severe economic downturn could not be ruled out given the further restriction of credit availability and ongoing weakness in the housing market.”